What is happening?
In the early hours of Thursday, multiple explosions were heard in Ukraine's capital Kyiv's downtown district. Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, announced in a televised address that 137 civilians and military personnel had been murdered and 316 others had been injured so far. The situation is critical.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and asked for an immediate cease of hostilities. US President Joe Biden has described Russia's actions as "unprovoked and unwarranted." At the same time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson condemned the attack.
Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine over several months, sparking warnings on what people now fear as the beginning of World War 3.
Why did Russia declare war on Ukraine?
With the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent country. It was once part of the Russian empire. Still, after becoming the Soviet Republic and shedding its Russian imperial past, it developed strong links with the West.
The country has struggled with corruption and internal strife since its independence. The western half of the nation wants to integrate with the West, while the eastern half intends to merge with Russia.
The crisis began after Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych rejected a European Union association agreement, favouring deeper relations with Russia in the so-called "Revolution of Dignity". Then demonstrators overthrew him. Russia grabbed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and backed separatists in eastern Ukraine in exchange.
Soon after, Russia launched an attack on Donbas, Ukraine's industrial heartland. The armed battle between the Ukrainian army and rebels backed by Russia claimed the lives of almost 14,000 people.
Russia has been accused by Ukraine and the West of supplying soldiers and weaponry to the rebels. On the other hand, Russia slammed the US and NATO to assist Ukraine with weaponry and joint military exercises.
Russia has also stated that it does not want Ukraine to join NATO. And it has requested that any NATO manoeuvres along its borders be halted, and NATO soldiers are withdrawn from Central and Eastern Europe. It should be highlighted that Ukraine's entry to NATO would need the unanimous agreement of the organization's 30 member nations. Furthermore, Russia regards Ukraine as a territory inside its "sphere of influence" rather than an independent state.
However, the United States and NATO have rejected Russia's requests. The West is backing Ukraine and has threatened Russia with financial sanctions if its forces march into Ukraine.
What does Ukraine want?
Ukraine is not a NATO member, but it aspires to be one. It has said unequivocally that it will apply for EU membership in 2024. Before considering NATO membership, the region's corruption and internal problems must be addressed. The current Ukrainian President was elected on promises of Donbas peace, anti-corruption, and economic regeneration.
Last December, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg rejected Russian requests to cancel Ukraine's 2008 vow to become a member one day. He went on to say that Russia would not oppose Ukraine's entry if the time came.
Why is the US worrying?
Russia breached Ukraine's Budapest Memorandum Security Assurances by grabbing Crimea and sponsoring the Donbas war. The multilateral agreement was signed in 1994 by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for Ukraine's pledge to dismantle its nuclear weapons.
Also, The United States' support of Ukraine is intended to foster political and economic reform and alleviate pressing humanitarian needs. The United States has continuously supported Ukraine's transition to a democratic society with a thriving market economy.
How does it impact India?
In 2021, bilateral commerce between India and Russia was valued at $11.9 billion. India exported $3.3 billion in commodities, with pharmaceutical items accounting for $542 million of the total.
Electronics, iron and steel, tea, and car components are the other leading exports. Last year, India imported $8.6 billion from Russia. Significant imports were crude oil, petroleum products, coal, fertilizers, gold, precious stones, and precious metals.
Russia is India's largest weaponry supplier, accounting for half of the overall imports. The United States and Europe have threatened to impose the most severe penalties on Russia.
The Ukraine crisis has directly impacted thousands of Indian citizens and India's economy and commerce. Over 18,000 Indian students study medicine or engineering in Ukraine, accounting for roughly a quarter of all international students. Before Ukraine closed its airspace to civilians on Thursday, they returned a few hundred of them.
The administration faces a difficult path ahead, from evacuating Indian students to handling inflation and other economic effects of the Russia-Ukraine situation.
India can also lead the peacekeeping talks between the two countries.
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